As Europe accelerates the digital transformation of its railway network, the successful deployment of the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) and the Future Railway Mobile Communication System (FRMCS) will depend on the readiness of both infrastructure and rolling stock.

Against this backdrop, ProRail, the Dutch railway infrastructure manager, has commissioned SCI Verkehr GmbH to deliver a strategic study assessing the long-term readiness of the Dutch rail freight locomotive fleet for ERTMS migration. The project will develop a robust forecast of the number of ERTMS-ready freight locomotives required in the Netherlands and evaluate the pace of fleet conversion through at least 2040.

The study will support ProRail in addressing a critical strategic challenge: ensuring sufficient availability of ERTMS-equipped freight locomotives throughout the phased migration of the Dutch railway network.

Recognizing that fleet readiness is a dynamic process, SCI Verkehr will provide annual updates to the analysis, incorporating developments in fleet composition, retrofit programmes, technology evolution, infrastructure migration, regulatory changes, and freight market demand. This continuous assessment will provide stakeholders with transparent, data-driven insights to support long-term investment and operational planning.

A key differentiator of SCI Verkehr's methodology is its proprietary rolling stock and railway market database, which combines detailed information on locomotives, infrastructure, signalling technologies, manufacturers, and operators across Europe. This comprehensive analytical framework enables market intelligence that extends well beyond publicly available information, providing a robust basis for forecasting fleet availability and technology adoption.

As the European rail sector moves beyond ERTMS implementation toward the introduction of FRMCS, the next-generation railway communications system, interoperability between onboard signalling and digital communications will become increasingly important. Locomotive operators will need to prepare not only for ETCS/ERTMS deployment but also for FRMCS integration to ensure seamless cross-border operations, enhanced network capacity, and future-proof digital rail services.

SCI Verkehr is uniquely positioned to support infrastructure managers, railway undertakings, manufacturers, and policymakers in navigating the strategic, technical, and market implications of Europe's ETCS/ERTMS and FRMCS rollout. Through independent market intelligence and long-term fleet analysis, SCI Verkehr helps the rail industry prepare for the next phase of digital railway transformation.